Nearly 74 million Americans depend on Social Security for income, making the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) a key update.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) calculates COLA based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from July to September. Since benefits are tied to lifetime earnings and regional income levels, the actual dollar increase varies by state.
While the official 2026 COLA announcement may be delayed, experts project what retirees can expect—especially in states where Social Security benefits are already higher.
Projected COLA 2026: What Retirees Can Expect
- Many analysts foresee a 2.7% COLA increase for 2026, slightly up from the 2.5% implemented in 2025.
- Some forecasts suggest heads will consider inflation through September; in that case, a 2.8% figure is not off the table.
- On average, a 2.7% raise would yield about $54 extra per month, pushing a baseline benefit from $2,008 to $2,062.
- However, rising Medicare Part B premiums, projected to climb roughly 11.6%, could consume a significant portion of that increase—potentially up to 40% or more.
- Historically, a 2.7% increase would rank around 29th highest among annual COLAs since the switch to the CPI-W method started in 1977.
Because the COLA is a fixed percentage, the actual dollar gain depends on where your base benefit stands. Therefore, beneficiaries in states with higher average payments will see bigger nominal boosts.
Top 10 States with Highest Social Security Benefits & Expected Increases
Below is a table listing the top 10 U.S. states by average Social Security benefit for retired workers, along with the estimated increase under a projected 2.7% COLA:
| Rank | State | Approx. Average Benefit (2025) | Estimated 2.7% Increase | Projected New Benefit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connecticut | ~$2,196 | + ~$59 | ~$2,255 |
| 2 | New Jersey | ~$2,190 | + ~$59 | ~$2,249 |
| 3 | New Hampshire | ~$2,184 | + ~$59 | ~$2,243 |
| 4 | Delaware | ~$2,171 | + ~$59 | ~$2,230 |
| 5 | Maryland | ~$2,140 | + ~$58 | ~$2,198 |
| 6 | Washington | ~$2,099 | + ~$57 | ~$2,156 |
| 7 | Minnesota | ~$2,016 | + ~$54 | ~$2,070 |
| 8 | Massachusetts | ~$2,003 | + ~$54 | ~$2,057 |
| 9 | Indiana | ~$2,034 | + ~$55 | ~$2,089 |
| 10 | Utah / Virginia | ~$2,065 | + ~$56 | ~$2,121 |
From this breakdown, Connecticut, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Delaware, and Maryland top the list. Their relatively high base benefit levels position them for the largest nominal gains from the 2026 COLA increase.
Why Some States See Larger Dollar Gains
It’s crucial to understand that your state of residence does not directly alter the COLA formula—benefits are calculated through a federal method based on earnings history, age, and credits. That said, differences by state arise due to:
- Higher regional wages and incomes, leading to larger lifetime earnings in certain states.
- Demographic and employment profiles—states with more professionals or high-wage sectors bring up averages.
- Claiming behaviors and workforce patterns—some states have a higher share of late claimants or high earners.
Thus, while every beneficiary receives the same percentage boost, those already starting from a higher base benefit see the greatest dollar increase.
Factors That Could Reduce the Raise
- Announcement Delays: A government shutdown could postpone the mid-October COLA release.
- Premium Deductions: Rising Medicare Part B premiums may cut into net benefits.
- COLA Lag: The adjustment reflects past inflation, so retirees feel price hikes before the raise.
- CPI-W Limits: The index may underestimate seniors’ real expenses, especially healthcare costs.
The 2026 COLA isn’t officially confirmed, but a 2.7% increase is expected—about $54 more per month for the average retiree.
States like Connecticut, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Delaware, and Maryland may see the biggest gains, though higher Medicare Part B premiums could offset some of the increase. Beneficiaries should stay alert for the final announcement and plan accordingly.
FAQs
When is the 2026 COLA announcement expected?
Under normal conditions, the SSA announces the COLA in mid-October (usually around October 15), once the latest CPI-W data is available. However, disruptions like a government shutdown may push that date later.
Why do some states see bigger actual dollar increases?
Because the COLA is a percentage increase, a state with a higher average benefit will see a larger dollar offshoot. So, while every retiree gets the same percentage boost, those in states with higher base benefits gain more in absolute terms.
Will my increase be reduced by health care costs?
Yes. If your Social Security check is subject to Medicare Part B premium deductions, a substantial chunk of your COLA gain may get eaten up. A projected ~11.6% rise in Part B could consume much of a 2.7% boost.